What Happens When October is Lower?

What Happens When October is Lower?

November 03, 2023

Now that October is over, we have the chance to reflect on what happened in the market over the past month. October brought us a negative return on the S&P 500 and with October ending down, that means stock indexes have finished down the last three month's consecutively. This is the first such occurrence since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Since 1950, there have been 22 examples of a negative three-month period. Although the S&P 500 was down approximately 3% in October, history shows us that this may mean good things. 

November is the best performing month since 1950 and second best month over the past 5 and 10 year periods of time. Furthermore, during only one of the past 11 Novembers has the S&P 500 been down for the month. Additonally, November has been the start of both the strongest two-month and six-month periods for stocks over that same time span.

Below, please find some additional facts: 

  • October has been a negative month 19 times since 1950. 
    • The average return in November of those years has been 2.4%. 
    • The average return in November and December of those years is 5.2%.
    • The average return in November-April has been nearly 7%.
  • When the "red" month losing streak ends at 3 months, the average return one year later is 17.9%.
    • Additionally the market has been positive 81% of the time one year later.

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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.